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Read about Optical Fiber's 50th Anniversary, 2020's Market Outlook, the U.S. Brightest Light Initiative, Advocacy, Special Events, New Reports and Other Noteworthy News, Opinions & Opportunities
In this Issue:
Happy 50th Anniversary of Optical Fiber Optical fiber and the semiconductor laser turn 50 years old this year! The combination launched the field of optical communications, and we're celebrating at OFC 2020 in San Diego this month, including some special events (here). With the addition of the optical amplifier and other developments, optical fiber communications reduced the cost of long-distance communications so that we can now access international networks from a pocket phone at an affordable monthly cost, something unimaginable a few decades ago.
The compound growth rate through the 39-year period amounts to 23% per year. For those who like log charts (below), the rate is clearly slowing, and showed a rare decline in 2019, the only one other than 2002. Cabled fiber is not a consumable product, it is a capital investment, and fortunately there are still many reasons for investing in new fiber: access to new 5G microcells, new and upgraded data centers, continued expansion of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), and expansion into underserved countries.
The revenues don't track this phenomenal growth, because unit prices also fell dramatically through the period. Almost two decades ago, at less than pennies per meter, Richard noted that optical fiber was less expensive than kite string and fishing line. And tellingly, optical fiber forecast business is now managed by CRU International, which specializes in commodity metals and copper cable. But the falling prices enabled much of the network expansion and the "Over the Top" players who followed, such as Netflix, Google and Facebook. The chart below shows the prices for bare and cabled G.652 fiber from 1983 to 2019, with steady price erosion through nearly 40 years of about 10% per year, compounded.
Revenues have grown to about US$ 14 billion per year, but the business cycles are more dramatic than the fluctuations in prices or installations. OIDA roughtly estimates that the compounded annual growth rate over the period 1980-2019 was about 8-9%. For comparison, the S&P 500 U.S. stock market index grew at about the same rate, and both grew about 3% faster than global GDP during the same period. Market Outlook for 2020: Flat Sales OIDA is expecting flat sales in the optics and photonics market in 2020, following a slight decline in 2019 of about 2%, to US$ 463 billion. The 2019 results are an estimate as of this writing, as we wait for companies to report Q4 results, and it’s still early for the 2020 forecast, as we wait to see the impact of the COVID-19 virus. If a revision is necessary, it’s likely to be downward, not upward. But we can hope, right?
This OIDA forecast contrasts dramatically with upbeat, bullish forecasts announced last month. We won't name names, but one of them expects 11.5% growth in the laser market. Another expects 7.9% growth for optics and photonics components, similar to past performance it claims. Why would the OIDA estimate and forecast be so different? The U.S. Brightest Light Initiative Moves Forward The Brightest Light Initiative has completed its report on its workshop regarding the future of intense ultrafast lasers in the U.S. The workshop was held 27-29 March 2019 at OSA headquarters, in Washington DC. The initiative was created in response to the 2017 U.S. National Academies report, Opportunities in Intense Ultrafast Lasers, which first noted the potential science and technology reach that new U.S. facilities could have, and also that the global community had far surpassed the U.S. in this area of research and development. The figure below shows the intense laser labs worldwide, in 2019.
The workshop report makes seven recommendations, including
The Countdown to OIDA Executive Forum at OFC is On….Final Chance to Register and Attend This opportunity comes only once a year. Join industry leaders on 9 March and discuss critical technology advancements and business opportunities that will shape the network and your company.
Register now to attend OIDA Executive Forum — the premier event for leaders in optical networking and communications. Special savings are available to OIDA members. Exclusive for OIDA Members: Buy 1 discounted registration and bring a customer or colleague for free! Attend an Industry Session on Quantum Communication and the Market Potential of Quantum Technologies at OFC OIDA will preview findings from its upcoming roadmap on quantum photonics, and host a panel discussion on market opportunities at a special show floor session at OFC. The report, prepared by Newry Corporation, addresses challenges, opportunities and market potential for photonic technologies for applications in quantum communication, quantum computing and quantum sensing. OIDA, the premier provider of trusted intelligence for the photonics industry, will release the roadmap to the public on 20 April. However, OIDA Members will get an exclusive opportunity to download OIDA Quantum Photonics Roadmap: Every Photon Counts on 10 March. RSVP for OIDA Member Benefit Orientation on 18 March RSVP for OIDA's member benefit overview orientation on 18 March at 13:00. This is an opportunity to learn more about key membership benefits you and your company should be taking advantage of and explore how to maximize performance and grow your business. Submit Your Research by 18 March to Present at Applied Industrial Optics Meeting in Washington, DC Presenting at the OSA Applied Industrial Optics Topical Meeting (AIO) provides the opportunity to showcase your work to leaders in your field, and to expand your network of professional connections. AIO grants unprecedented access to industry experts and insight into today's commercial climate. It offers a unique atmosphere that is both informative and interactive, providing a forum for photonics leaders to meet, collaborate, and innovate.
View all the invited speakers. Learn more about the meeting. Submit your research for consideration by 18 March 2020. Exhibit and sponsorship opportunities are also available for this meeting. New OIDA Optical Communications Market Update Report is Now Available
Gain Recognition for Your Engineering Team
Nominations for the Paul F. Forman Team Engineering Excellence Award are due 10 April. This is a great opportunity to highlight the value and importance of engineering teams! The award recognizes technical achievements such as product engineering, process and software development, and patent development, as well as contributions to society such as furthering public appreciation of optical engineering. Recipients receive: Special recognition in OPN; dedicated press release & social media posts; recognition during Frontier’s in Optics (FiO); participation in the FiO Awards Ceremony & Reception; and recognition in trade magazines, journals & conference publications. OFC Career Zone is Live — Employers and Job Seekers Create Your Account Now The OFC Career Zone is where job seekers and employers from all areas of optical communications connect. Check out the OFC Career Zone Online and create your account today! OFC Grants for First Time Women Attendees Supporting increased diversity is a shared goal of the OFC community and for the third year the OFC 2020 co-sponsors are offering waived full technical registrations for up to 75 first time women attendees. If you know of someone who fits this criteria I encourage you to forward them the details and application form. See restrictions, get additional details, and apply here. Grants of up to four hundred dollars (US$ 400) per family are available to OFC attendees who need care for a family member onsite or who incur extra expenses leaving dependents at home (e.g., extra day care, babysitting services, elder care etc). Get more information and apply here. The Suzanne R. Nagel Lounge (Booth #2739 at OFC) Named in honor of the first woman chair of OFC, Suzanne R. Nagel, this inclusive, networking space celebrates diversity while offering attendees the opportunity to discuss trending topics in the field, meet colleagues and explore new business opportunities. We will also be offering complementary headshots for anyone interested. Note: On Wednesday and Thursday we will be opening at 9 for exhibitors interested in updating their headshot before the show opens. Check ofcconference.org/nagellounge for the latest list of speakers and additional details. Invitation to Join the OIDA Optics and Photonics Industry LinkedIn Group Join 3,000+ of your colleagues in our OIDA Optics & Photonics Industry Network LinkedIn Group. This one-of-a-kind Forum for Industry lets you participate in discussions about cutting-edge issues. Extend your professional network. Exchange information about problems, ideas and solutions. Collaborate with experts in your field. Now is the perfect time to build a relationship with fellow optics and photonics professionals!
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