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OIDA's Early Outlook for 2017—Cautiously Optimistic
Last year is put to bed, and 2017 is off to a fast start. What can we expect for 2017? The short answer: we're overdue for some improvement, but we may have to wait several months for the momentum to build. This figure shows OIDA's estimate for production of optics and photonics components and systems for 2016, and forecast of 5% growth for 2017.
Growth is overdue because the sectors that are strong for U.S. companies have been offset by maturing sectors, such as displays, solar cells and panels, LEDs and LED lighting. Production in these products is in Asia, and dominates the market numbers. Also, the U.S. dollar remains strong, which—among other things—discounts products exchanged in currencies that are weak compared to the dollar. A dollar returning to previous values would give the appearance of greater world production, as measured in dollars.
Last year at this time we expected a moderate recovery of high-single-digits, but it stumbled and will end up approximately flat with 2015. The coming year is keeping many secrets: what's to come from the U.S. presidential election, Brexit, more elections in Europe, and political uncertainty in several regions? OIDA predicts that the direct impact of these events—good or bad—will take time to play out. But the uncertainty alone can drag down capital equipment purchases, and much of the optics and photonics industry goes into capital equipment.
We're tracking the market. For more information check the OIDA Market Updates. See also OIDA's commentaries on the U.S. election and Brexit vote.
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The 100-year View of Photonics, Part 3—Sigmoid Curves
Last year in this newsletter we noted 7 major commercial achievements and social transformations from optics and photonics through OSA's first 100 years, and 4 trends for the next 100. This month we discuss how they play out (see also here).
Technology adoption tends to follow sigmoid or "S" shaped curves. The technology is taken up slowly at first, as prices remain high and end-users need time to discover new uses for the technology. Then there is a period of rapid adoption, as increasing manufacturing volumes lead to lower manufacturing costs, which open new markets, further increasing volume, in a positive feedback loop. Finally, adoption slows as the technology matures, scaling mainly with the economy.
The figure maps several optics-and photonics-enabled technologies on a normalized timeline, ranging from early technology development to product maturity. The technologies are assumed to follow an S-curve through their life cycles, although the scale varies considerably from one to another. The United Nations medium projection for global population is included for comparison, leveling off near 11 billion by 2100, suggesting that even global economic growth may face a slower pace one day.
 Source: OSA Industry Development Associates (OIDA), 2016. |
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Update on AIM Photonics Institute and its New Rochester Location
Forming an industry cluster or consortium seems like an easy idea, unless you actually try to form one, as OIDA has. That's why the AIM Photonics institute deserves credit for its progress. OIDA spoke about this another other topics at the MIT Microphotonics Center on 31 October.
AIM's most recent news is that it will place its Rochester facility in the Eastman Business Park, in a facility formerly occupied by ON Semiconductor. The Rochester facility will focus on testing, assembly, and packaging of integrated photonics, while the Albany facility will focus on the chip fabrication. There isn't the space here to give a proper update of the institute, one of many Manufacturing USA institutes (formerly called IMIs), but considering the challenges, it's proceeding well.
OIDA pointed out that a regional cluster, or ecosystem, requires many pieces, and it's not enough to have only some of them. Successful clusters—such as Silicon Valley—include a research university, major manufacturer, smaller suppliers and innovative startups, and a culture of investors, lawyers, and others who can help make things happen. Pieces are needed all throughout the life of a company, from start-up to exit or maturity.
It's not enough to encourage stakeholders to work together to make things happen. Money certainly helps to get attention, such as the $110 million that the U.S. government offered to match AIM's other funding. But stakeholders are in a perpetual game theory calculation, wondering whether to cooperate for a "win-win" or to go it alone. This is a rational, but confounding, calculation. Successful consortia look easy only in retrospect, to outsiders.
OIDA made this point for the benefit of those stakeholders who might not appreciate the calculation that industry managers must make. It takes a strong champion to lead the way, whereas busy and distracted managers may opt to do nothing, with little consequence. And the more players in the game, the bigger the challenge, as suggested in the figure. The easiest partnerships to form are the customer-supplier and customer-supplier-2nd source relationships. Ecosystems are much more complex and difficult.
The event was a convergence of MIT's annual meeting with its associated Integrated Photonics System Roadmap and the AIM Photonics Academy. OSA and OIDA support AIM and the AIM Academy in many ways, including hosting sessions at the OSA Frontiers in Optics meeting and at OIDA's integrated circuit packaging workshop on 21 March.
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Congress Passes American Innovation and Competitiveness Act
Congress has passed and President Obama signed into law the American Innovation and Competitiveness Act (S. 3084). Optics and photonics language is included in section 603 of the bill. This is all thanks to members of the optics and photonics community who came to Washington, DC, to participate in the National Photonics Initiative's visits with members of Congress, advocating for this language to be added to the bill. OSA is a cofounding sponsor of the National Photonics Initiative. We greatly appreciate the efforts made by Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), Sen. John Thune (R-SD), Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), and Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO).
Read the National Photonics Initiative news release and the OSA news release.
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Stay Up-to-Date on U.S. Science Policy and Legislation
Sign up today for the Optics Legislative Network (OLN) and receive information on U.S. science policy issues, legislation, administration actions, and proposed research and development funding levels. You will also receive emails about upcoming activities that OSA members can participate in such as Congressional visits, write your members of Congress, have a member of Congress tour your facility, and much more. Learn more
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Congratulations to OIDA Member Edmund Optics for 75 Years of Service
See an interesting timeline of events, along with photos dating back to their first days in southern New Jersey to their many global expansions. Congratulations on your service to the optics and photonics community and for your support as an OIDA member!
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Free Admission to OIDA Executive Forum at OFC
20 March 2017 at OFC in Los Angeles, CA, USA
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Did you know? Employees of OIDA member companies can register a colleague at no charge for OIDA Executive Forum at OFC. Members can also save $375 on all registrations made before 27 February. OIDA Executive Forum provides you with an exclusive opportunity to hear insider perspectives in an uncensored environment, while participating in high-level networking. The program is now available online.
Join more than 200 senior-level executives as they convene to discuss key themes, opportunities, and challenges facing the next generation in optical networking and communications. See the Lineup of industry leaders who will be speaking. Exclusive discounts—and free registration for a colleague—are available to OIDA members through 27 February. Space is limited for this event. Register now. |
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Program Announced: 1-Day Immersion Workshop on Manufacturing Trends for Integrated Photonics at OFC
19 March 2017 - Held in Conjuction with OFC in Los Angeles, CA, USA
Attend this workshop and get a deep look at the latest manufacturing trends for integrated photonics. Learn about new opportunities. Network with the top experts in the field. Attend five presentation sessions, one discussion session, breakfast, lunch, poster display, and special evening networking event.
Key questions to be addressed:
- What supply chain, manufacturing, and packaging challenges are common across applications?
- What common or standardized elements exist across applications?
- What resources are available and how can gaps be filled?
The workshop is targeted at companies and innovators considering or already investing in integrated photonics to meet their future product requirements, and who need to understand key manufacturing challenges and how they can be addressed. Register by 27 February and take advantage of special discounts for OIDA members.
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Register Now for Free Access to the OFC 2017 Exhibition
Meet your vendors at OFC 2017 Exhibition, 21-23 March, Los Angeles, CA.
With over 600 exhibitors, you can make a year's worth of connections in three days. Plus attend more than 15 programs on the show floor covering Intra- and Inter- Data Center Connectivity, Infrastructure Makeover and Networking and SDN/NFV/Open Source. Hear experts from COBO, Ethernet Alliance, IEEE Cloud Computing, IEEE Big Data, MEF, OCP, OIF, ONF, OpenConfig and TIP. Register today for your Exhibits Pass Plus.
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OFC 2017 is Almost Here! Will Your Company be Represented?
Now is the time to reserve your exhibit at OFC 2017. Your competitors will be here...where will you be? Check out the videos from previous exhibitors posted here and reserve your exhibit today. OFC is 99% sold! High-impact sponsorships are also available to amplify your sales. Become an OFC sponsor and reach 13,000 customers and 600 exhibitors. Let's work together to unlock a unique opportunity for your brand! Contact us today at sales@ofcconference.org to discuss your business objectives and we'll build a sponsorship package that will help you achieve your goals. Companies from around the globe are excited about meeting prime customers at OFC this March. Check out this short retrospective posted recently by Cisco about OFC 2016.
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OFC Exhibitors: Take Advantage of OFC's Multiple Public Relations Opportunities
Maximize your presence on-site by promoting your news and product announcements to media and analysts attending the show. It's never too early to get started:
Register your PR Representative to ensure the appropriate person at your company receives important PR updates about the show, the new PR Toolkit, and the pre-registered media/analyst list. The PR Toolkit will walk you through the FREE publicity opportunities available to exhibitors to help maximize your presence at the show. Contact ofc@wilkinson.associates for a copy of the PR Toolkit.
Engage on social media: OFC has an active social media presence throughout the year. Make sure you are following and engaging with OFC on Twitter, , YouTube and the OFC blog. And, don't forget to use the OFC 2017 hashtag - #OFC17.
Reinforce your expertise through social media:
- Writing a post (or posts) for the OFC blog is a great way to position yourself and your organization as an expert on a particular topic or industry trend. Share news on your latest research, product launch or identify the latest trend or industry issue. The OFC PR team welcomes year-round participation. Contact ofc@wilkinson.associates for more information.
- Participate in the OFC Twitter Chats. The OFC PR team is looking for thought leaders, industry innovators to participate in OFC Twitter Chats beginning in January. Contact Josh Miller for more information.
Free news release posting: Submit your news releases free of charge on the OFC website. Registered media are directed here prior to and during the show. Exhibitors also receive a discount on Business Wire's Tradeshow Circuit. Contact ofc@wilkinson.associates for more information on news release opportunities.
Advance news sharing: Share your advance news and product launches through the First News program sent directly to press. Final deadline is 14 February. Contact Leah Wilkinson for more information on First News.
Breakfast Briefings Program: Introduce your company to leading industry media and analysts through the OFC Breakfast Briefing program on Wednesday 22 March. A limited number of slots will be available and priority will be given to smaller exhibitors. Contact ofc@wilkinson.associates for more information and reserve a slot.
To learn about additional PR opportunities, contact the OFC PR Team: media@ofcconference.org.
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OFC Career Zone — Now Open
The OFC Career Zone is where job seekers and employers from all areas of optical communications connect. Check out OFC Career Zone Online and create your account today!
Be sure to also participate in our NEW! Onsite OFC Career Zone Live at OFC, Los Angeles Convention Center, 21-23 March 2017.
Questions: contact careercenter@ofcconference.org or +1.202.416.1942
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Photonic Integrated Circuits (PIC) Workshop on March, 22 at OFC
This year's OFC will feature the 4th workshop on Photonic Integrated Circuits (PIC). The third workshop was held at OFC 2016 and had over 275 attendees and had a unique format consisting of sponsor presentations, then a networking break with catering plus a mini market fair, followed by several use case presentations. The 4th PIC workshop will have a large group of sponsor companies and will be held during OFC on Wednesday March 22, 2017 in Room 515A, at the Los Angeles Convention Center from 5:15pm to 8:15pm.
Driven by 100Gbps in long-haul as well as in datacenter applications, photonic integration is rapidly picking up momentum as it is becoming an indispensable part of those solutions. The purpose of the workshop is to create a one-stop-shop for everyone interested in photonic integration as it brings together all the key players offering solutions, whether foundries, simulation software, packaging, test & measurement, or turn-key solutions. A specific emphasis is on multi-project wafer shuttles (MPW) plus the accompanying Process Design Kits (PDK) as these provides important toolkits to reduce the cost for developing a new chip.
The workshop will provide the audience with a good overall picture of the state-of-art in PICs as well as how to take advantage of existing suppliers to save time and cost. The workshop is free of charge, but does require advance registration. Food and drinks will be provided, and there will be plenty of time to network with the sponsor companies. The workshop is organized by 7 Pennies and OSA Industry Development Associates and is sponsored by a consortium of over 15 PIC services providers covering the entire PIC value chain.
For more information and/or registration, please contact isobel@7pennies.com or go www.7pennies.com
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The Optical Society Names Washington DC Headquarters for Dr. Jarus W. Quinn
The Optical Society (OSA) announced today that its headquarters building will be named for Dr. Jarus W. Quinn, who served as OSA's first Executive Director and guided the growth of the Society from 1969 through 1994. The Optical Society, which celebrates its Centennial in 2016, has recently renovated its building located in the Dupont Circle neighborhood of Washington D.C. Serving as Society's first Executive Director, Quinn grew a global membership and fostered new publications and meetings in optics and photonics. Read the press release.
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Submit an OSA Senior Member Designation Request
If you are a well-established professional within the optics and photonics industry, you are encouraged to request an OSA Senior Member designation in recognition of your experience and accomplishments. Senior Member Requests are due no later than 28 February 2017. Visit www.osa.org/seniormember to learn more.
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Browse the Most-Recent Engineering & Lab Notes from Applied Optics.
Engineering and Laboratory Notes (E&L Notes), from Applied Optics, highlight laboratory techniques and hands-on skills technicians and specialists can utilize for the design, analysis, fabrication, integration, alignment, and measurement of optical components and systems. E&L Notes Editor Brian Monacelli sums up the initiative here.
Applied Optics recently published these E&L Notes:
Looking to highlight your company's innovative techniques? Applied Optics continues to seek E&L Notes to publish. Submit yours today.
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Build Your Business with OIDAs High-Value Promotional Opportunities and Advertising
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Enhance your company's image and create product awareness with OSA advertising opportunities. OSA offers advertising products for all budgets and marketing goals, with discounted rates for OIDA members. Learn more. OIDA offers special opportunities to target your customers through event and webinar sponsorships. Let's work together to unlock a unique opportunity for your brand! |
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Want to get even more insight and access to great discussions about optics and photonics?
Join 3,000 of your colleagues in our Optics & Photonics Industry Network LinkedIn Group. This one-of-a-kind Forum for Industry lets you participate in discussions about cutting-edge issues. Extend your professional network. Exchange information about problems, ideas and solutions. Collaborate with experts in your field. Now is the perfect time to build a relationship with fellow optics and photonics professionals!
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Take advantage of your OSA Industry Development Associates Member Benefits
We are committed to ensuring the value of your OSA Industry Development Associates Membership, so please email OSA if you have any suggestions for new programs or comments on your membership.
Forward this message to your colleagues.
Not yet a member? Learn more about the benefits of membership.
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OSA Industry Development Associates Committee
Thank you to the volunteers who oversee the programs and services available to the Industry Community.
• Alex Fong,
Gooch & Housego, Chair
• Jean-Michel Pelaprat,
A2E Partnership Inc.
• Henrik Skov
Andersen,
Ibsen Photonics
• Simin Cai,
Go!Foton |
• John Dexheimer,
Lightwave Advisors
• James Fisher,
Newport
• Fred Leonberger,
EOvation
Technologies, LLC
• Claudio Mazzali,
Corning, Inc. |
• Mike Mielke,
Trumpf
• Martin Seifert
• Costel Subran,
Opton Laser
International
• Christoph Harder,
Harder and Partner,
Liasison |
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