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The vote by Britons to exit the European Union means both a little and a lot to photonics. A little because the U.K. is just a small part of the global photonics industry (about 4%), and its strengths in military and other photonics technologies will continue for the time being. A lot because many consequences are unquantifiable and long term. But most of the effects will be confined to UK and Europe. Here's OIDA's view so far.
Top OIDA presented its mid-year estimate for optics and photonics production at CLEO with a cautious but hopeful projection for the rest of 2016. Using early results, OIDA currently forecasts a flat year for photonics, revised downward from our forecast earlier this year. However, recall that there was also lots of gloomy talk in January this year that China's debt would collapse into an all-out crisis. Yet, by mid-2016 the global economy is still hanging together. The Brexit vote clearly adds uncertainty to the global economy, and markets don't like uncertainty. But China is also a great concern, and for now China's technology sector is still stronger than its overall economy. More details on OIDA's market tracking appear in the OIDA Market Update. Top Inventor and author Ray Kurzweil spoke about artificial intelligence (AI) and his "law of accelerating returns" at OSA's centennial Light the Future speaker series last month at CLEO2016. The law features the logarithmic pace of change in technology. For example, as performance steadily improves, and prices steadily decline, the overall performance per unit price improves at a rapid growth rate, and constant growth rates are exponential, by definition. The law is counter-intuitive, however, because humans tend to think in linear time scales, not exponential. We think of progress as 1, 2, 3,... rather than 1, 2, 4,... It only takes 10 "doublings" to reach 1,000X improvement, and only 20 doublings to reach 1 million times improvement. Kurzweil's ideas are not without controversy, notwithstanding his mostly sympathetic techie audience. It's OIDA's view that exponential trends in technology performance apply only until they don't, at which time improvements slow and the overall trend takes on the shape of an "S" curve, a family of curves known in technology forecasting as sigmoid curves. A key question becomes: Where lies the inflection point where growth begins to slow? Kurzweil spoke in detail about the human neocortex and its hierarchy of layers that enable higher level thinking. Computing can already mimic some of the low layers, and we will eventually master more layers, making computers more "intelligent." Former Secretary of Energy and Nobel Prize winner Stephen Chu moderated the Q&A session with Kurzweil, raising such questions as whether technology advances will exclude the economic "have nots." Kurzweil considers himself a futurist and said that he addressed some of these questions in his books, but he came across as generally neutral to optimistic about the role of technology in our future. For example, he doesn't see AI as an "us vs. them" question, because we will always incorporate robotics and AI as extensions of ourselves. And it doesn't matter if we implant technology or carry it in our pocket, the effect is the same. Optics and photonics fits into this by helping to enable the technology progression, whether in miniature displays and cameras or through optical data links in and between data centers. In the Q&A, Kurzweil was asked if the trend from centralized mainframes to distributed personal computing is coming full circle with cloud computing. Kurzweil pointed out that no, it's another evolution entirely. Cloud computing is in fact distributed geographically through redundancy, only giving the illusion of centrality. Kurzweil made key inventions in the flatbed scanner, music synthesizer, and other products, is author of numerous books, has a position at Google on AI, and is co-founder of the Singularity University. OSA's centennial Light the Future speaker series continues through 2016. More information is available here. The Laser Applications Conference (LAC) is a new industry conference on Laser Applications at the OSA Lasers Congress. The event takes place 30 October-3 November 2016 in Boston, MA, US. The conference will also include an OIDA Executive Forum on 3 November. The OIDA Executive Forum provides attendees with an exclusive opportunity to hear insider perspectives in an uncensored environment, while participating in high-level networking. The LAC will focus on two main topic areas; Materials Processing and High Intensity Lasers for Applications. Materials Processing will include advanced applications for industrial use. High Intensity Lasers for Applications will include applications in defense, scientific research, and energy markets. One of the themes of this meeting will be to initiate discussions on what engineering and production advances are needed to translate promising technological advances into marketable products. Learn more about the conference and exhibition. Top Over 70 companies from industry, universities, research institutions and national labs are expected to showcase their products and services at the new OSA Laser Congress Exhibition. The event will take place 31 October to 3 November in Boston, Massachusetts, US and will feature the latest advances in solid-state laser development and related technologies. For the first time, the OSA Laser Congress will feature programming designed to couple research with product requirements. 500+ attendees walking the exhibits will see a comprehensive display of technological solutions. Will your company be represented? OSA Industry Development Associates Members receive a special member discount on exhibit space. Click here to view the Laser Congress Exhibitor List. To join the list of exhibitors contact exhibitsales@osa.org or phone +1.202.416.1474. Learn more. Top OSA hosted an incubator meeting on optics in extreme-scale computing in August 2015, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to inform the planning of its own co-funding of technology to enable the next generation of high-performance computing (HPC) procurements of the future. This OIDA Roadmap Report examines the topic and includes several relevant documents:
Top Have you dreamed of walking on Mars? Now you can with VR googles! Tell us your vision of the optics-enabled future. Enter the "Write the Future" story contest by submitting a fictional story (300 to 500 words) by 31 July 2016. Selected winner(s) will have his/her story published in Optics & Photonics News. First place winner will receive a cash prize of $500 and a free trip to FiO, OSA's 100th Annual Meeting, 17-21 October in Rochester, NY, USA, where the winner will be recognized. Learn more. Top Joseph Izatt, Duke University, and Bernard Kress, Microsoft Imaging & Applied Optics Congress 26 July 2016 18:30 — 20:00 Kongresshaus Stadthalle Heidelberg, Germany osa.org/ligththefuture Optical technologies have a rich history of applications in medicine, from the invention of eyeglasses and optical microscopes to the latest developments in automated laser surgery and fluorescence-based genome sequencing/genotyping technologies. Virtual and Augmented Reality products have been in development for decades and are finally showing promise for a myriad of applications. Join OSA for its Light the Future Speaker Series with entrepreneurs Joseph Izatt and Bernard Kress as they explore the future of imaging and applied optics. Top Join 3,000 of your colleagues in our Optics & Photonics Industry Network LinkedIn Group. This one-of-a-kind Forum for Industry lets you participate in discussions about cutting-edge issues. Extend your professional network. Exchange information about problems, ideas and solutions. Collaborate with experts in your field. Now is the perfect time to build a relationship with fellow optics and photonics professionals!
We are committed to ensuring the value of your OSA Industry Development Associates Membership, so please email OSA if you have any suggestions for new programs or comments on your membership. Forward this message to your colleagues. Not yet a member? Learn more about the benefits of membership. Top
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